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EIA下調(diào)天然氣價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)
點(diǎn)擊次數(shù)：448 發(fā)表時(shí)間：2023-3-9
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中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)
中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年3月7日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)周二發(fā)布的最新版《短期能源展望報(bào)告》，美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）下調(diào)了其對(duì)2023年和2024年天然氣價(jià)格的預(yù)測(cè)。
EIA目前預(yù)計(jì)，今年天然氣均價(jià)為3.02美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，較之前預(yù)估的3.40美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位下降11.2%。相比之下，EIA估計(jì)，2022年天然氣價(jià)格平均為6.42美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位。
EIA還將明年的天然氣價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)至3.89美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，低于之前報(bào)告中預(yù)測(cè)的4.04美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位。
EIA認(rèn)為，由于“非常溫和的天氣降低了對(duì)空間供暖的需求”，美國(guó)第一季度天然氣平均每天消費(fèi)量為991億立方英尺，比去年同期下降了5%。EIA認(rèn)為，住宅和商業(yè)天然氣消費(fèi)量降幅最大。
由于對(duì)天然氣消費(fèi)量下降的預(yù)期，EIA現(xiàn)在預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)將在3月底結(jié)束天然氣提取季節(jié)，天然氣庫(kù)存將超過(guò)1.9萬(wàn)億立方英尺，這一數(shù)字比五年平均水平高出23%，比EIA在1月份《短期能源展望報(bào)告》中預(yù)測(cè)的數(shù)字高出27%。
EIA表示，美國(guó)國(guó)家海洋和大氣管理局1月和2月的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2023年的前兩個(gè)月可能接近1895年數(shù)據(jù)有記錄以來(lái)的最高溫度。溫和的天氣集中在美國(guó)東部。
天然氣價(jià)格3月6日下跌12%，為1月30日以來(lái)最大跌幅，原因是天氣預(yù)報(bào)顯示天氣變暖，供暖需求下降。
李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)
原文如下：
EIA Lowers Forecast For Natural Gas Prices
The Energy Information Administration has decreased its forecast for natural gas prices for 2023 and 2024 according to the latest edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Tuesday.
The EIA now sees natural gas prices averaging $3.02 per MMBtu this year, down 11.2 percent from its previous forecast of $3.40 per MMBtu. For comparison, natural gas prices averaged $6.42 per MMBtu in 2022, the EIA estimates.
The EIA has also lowered its forecast for natural gas prices for next year, to $3.89 per MMBtu, down from its estimate of $4.04 per MMBtu made its previous report.
The EIA sees natural gas consumption averaging 99.1 billion cubic feet per day in Q1, down 5% from the same quarter last year on the back of “very mild temperatures that have reduced demand for space heating.” The EIA sees the largest decline in residential and commercial natural gas consumption.
With this anticipation of lower natural gas consumption, the EIA now expects the United States will close the withdrawal season at the end of March with more than 1.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in storage—a figure which is 23% more than the five-year average and 27% more than what the EIA forecast in its January STEO.
The EIA said that preliminary data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for January and February indicate the first two months of 2023 may be close to the warmest on record for that period in data going back to 1895. The mild weather was concentrated in the eastern part of the United States.
Natural gas prices fell 12% on Monday—the largest drop since January 30—driven by forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand.